A listing price is a claim
An asking price is one party’s estimate, published before anyone has tested it. It is the least examined number in a six-figure transaction.
Marine prediction markets · Settled on BitcoinBetterBoatBrokers
A boat’s asking price is a claim nobody has tested. We test it: a market on each listing, asking whether it sells at the price it is asking — priced continuously by people taking positions, and settled on Bitcoin.
The premise
Boats are priced by opinion and sold by attrition.
A listing goes up at a number, sits, gets cut, sits, gets cut again, and eventually trades — often months later, well below where it started. Everyone involved knew the first number was wrong. Nobody had a way to say so that carried any weight.
Comparables look backwards
What a similar boat sold for last spring describes a class, in a market that has since moved. It is evidence, not a forecast.
A market looks forwards
People willing to take a position on a specific listing produce a number that updates continuously — and that costs them something to be wrong about.
Mechanics
Three problems a market like this has to solve.
These are the parts that are easy to get subtly wrong, so they are written down plainly rather than described as magic.
Prices before there is volume
A new market has no participants, so it has no price. Each market opens with an imaginary pool that gives it one, then fades out as real positions arrive and take over the pricing.
weight = max(0, 1 − totalStakes ÷ decayThreshold)Earlier positions weigh more
Taking a view months before resolution is a different act from taking it the week before, when the answer is nearly visible. The payout split reflects that difference.
conviction = stake × √(days remaining)Settlement is a payment, not a promise
When a market resolves, the pool is divided across the winning side and paid out on Bitcoin, using Ark. Payouts are idempotent: a retry cannot pay twice.
payout = winnerPool × myWeight ÷ totalWeightInside the platform
Three screens, for three different questions.
The platform is in closed access while markets are seeded. Members reach these from the moment they sign in.
Market floor
Every open market on one screen — implied odds, how they have moved, pool depth, and how long is left. Filterable by hull, price band, and how far consensus sits from the ask.
Listing pressure
Comparable sales, market consensus, and listing behaviour combined into an estimate of where a boat actually clears — and how far the ask sits above it.
Positions & settlement
Open positions with their entry odds and conviction weight, projected payouts at current pool composition, and a settlement ledger that accounts for every payout attempt.
Access
Markets open to members first, in the order people joined.
Better Boat Brokers is in closed access. Join the list and you will hear once — when there is a market floor worth your time. Not a newsletter, and no sequence of follow-ups.
Request access
One message, when markets open. Sign-in is by emailed link — there are no passwords on this platform, so there is nothing to choose, store, or lose.